Whether you run a coupon or voucher program, an insurance book or a patient program, your business issues promises whose outcomes arrive weeks or months later — and you must plan, budget and report before the stories finish. Good measurement answers the questions that matter: how much of what you issued will come back and when, what your campaigns actually caused net of what would have happened anyway, what you owe on everything still outstanding, and which customers are quietly on their way out. The hard part isn’t ambition — it’s having a team that owns those numbers and makes them trustworthy.
We match your needs if you run a program with real volume and clear goals, but little to no dedicated forecasting function. You want to make sense of the event data you already have, get forecasts and measurements you can trust and stop relying on gut feel, and you have been struggling to hire this skill set internally or stretch your existing team to cover it. Most of our clients find that route expensive, slow and risky. Building a forecasting practice in-house means recruiting a rare mix — survival statistics, causal measurement and data engineering in the same team — plus onboarding and tooling costs; and even then, a new practice takes a long time to assemble and prove out. Asking your existing analysts or engineering team to “also do the forecasting” is tricky too: not everyone has the skills or the bandwidth, and people already stretched to hit their targets end up underperforming on both.
Too little, too late: one of the biggest pain-points in starting a forecasting practice is that the decisions can’t wait — budgets get set, campaigns get mailed and reserves get booked long before a new team’s numbers are clean and reliable. This is the number 1 reason companies turn towards a measurement partner. Choosing the right partner for your business is challenging, and you have to do it for the right reasons.
Survival curves, hazards and holdouts can get buried in jargon. We explain every number in a business context that relates to you and your team, and we estimate only what matters — a number you won’t act on isn’t worth producing.
We anchor everything to the four questions — what comes back, what it caused, what you owe, who is leaving — not vanity numbers. Every forecast and dashboard we build is tied to a decision you actually have to make.
We are straightforward if a number won’t hold up or an effect is too small to detect at your scale. We document how every figure is defined, estimated and backtested, so everyone knows exactly what it means and where the data comes from.
We build the pipelines and stand up the forecasts, and we combine domain and data expertise, so when the numbers raise a question we can help you read what they’re actually telling you.
Our main objective is giving you numbers you can trust. We constantly invest in our dedicated teams, making sure they bring the latest forecasting methods and tooling to your program.
We are rigorous and thorough, and we leave no stone unturned in order to turn messy, raw event data into a clean, well-defined forecast you can rely on — and the next one after that.
We share our best practices and measurement know-how — we literally wrote the books on it — and get invested in your program so you can read your own numbers with confidence and act on them.
We might not know your space yet, but our discovery process gets us up to speed fast on your program, customers and data, so the numbers we build are relevant from day one.
We want you to consider us an extension of your team, so we encourage hands-on collaboration and a regular metric review rhythm, and we make sure there is no communication bottleneck between our joint teams.
From the first discovery conversation through onboarding and delivery, we are fully transparent about our models, process, data sources and metric definitions. We build a common roadmap, document every step and keep the metrics open at all times.
Margins keep tightening, and the programs that win are the ones that know what their promises cost and what their campaigns cause. Yet most teams still fly on gut feel — redemption counted before the window closes, campaigns judged without a control group, reserves set by eyeballing last year’s average. Every campaign that goes out without a holdout is a measurement you can never recover. The companies that build the measurement habit early pull away from the ones that don’t — the sooner you start, the sooner every cycle becomes evidence.
As your measurement & forecasting partner, we build a solid practice from the ground up — or run it for you:
We work with you to map your program onto the four questions — what comes back, what it caused, what you owe, who is leaving — and fit the answers into your business roadmap. We ask the good questions: what do you need to see, what decision will it drive, and where is your biggest blind spot? We help you set a measurement vision and the value it brings to your board (defensible numbers) and your customers (a better program).
We map your event data, audit how you forecast and measure today — including whether your campaigns have the holdouts that make lift measurable at all — and set up a clear roadmap for the forecasts, reserves and dashboards worth building first.
We embed dedicated people directly into your team or take full ownership of measurement and forecasting. Together we build the ledgers, models and dashboards and document every step. We work in a steady cycle rhythm: forecasts refreshed each period, backtests and calibration reviewed, a roll-forward explaining every movement, and a constant eye on data quality.
We provide workshops for your analytics and data teams and help you build your in-house forecasting function: roles, skills, interview support and short-term leadership until your team is up and running on its own.
We start from the event data you already have, then build the forecasts, lift measurements and dashboards that answer what will come back, what it caused and what you owe — so your next decision rests on evidence, not gut feel.
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